🎲🃏 Poker Without Cards: Bluff Outs
The universal tell in poker is called betting!
Poker without Cards—Bluff Outs
Introduction
No-limit hold'em is a game of ins and outs, need and speed, aggravation and acceleration. Counting your outs—the number of cards that will complete your hand—is something to reconsider, thanks to what I call the Bluff Outs: additional scare cards that, if they hit, you bet out, forcing your opponent to fold. Bluff Outs Poker is about playing 'in the dark': betting that your opponents don’t have the cards rather than that they do.
Preflop Strategy
Preflop, a pocket pair only has two outs to improve, while overcards have six to draw to the nuts. This doesn't even take into account straight and flush draws! That means overcards are at least a 3:1 favorite to improve and win the hand. And with bluff outs, even if you miss, you can bet like you have it.
Shifting Your Thinking
It requires a shift in thinking—Instead of "I hope he doesn't bet" or "Come on, pair the board" or "Club, club, club" ... that's wasted energy. Say to yourself, "If a club comes on the river, I am betting out like I have it, enough to take my opponent off their hand of top pair, even trips!" or "If I hit my set, I am betting the pot" or "If I miss with AK, I am making a big continuation bet, no matter what." ... I've done it. It works.
Betting vs. Gambling
Full Catastrophe Poker is not a game of cards played with money—It is a game of money played with cards. It speaks a language called betting, a slang that rolls up its sleeves, spits in the street, screams strength possibly more than any other, and gets the work done. Tells don’t tell—people do with the language of their betting. Poker is a game of partial information, and the language of betting "last in" is information dominance.
Bluffing
Bluffing is a big part of NLH since most players miss the flop 33% of the time. In NLH, there are four opportunities to bluff: one pre and three post flop. LOOSE players are looking for reasons to CALL; TIGHT players, to FOLD.
You aren't a bad poker player if you get caught bluffing sometimes or most of the time. You only have to win a fraction of the time to net a profit. Sklansky's Theory of Poker points out that you cannot play optimally unless you include bluffing in your game.
Every bet or raise can be a bluff, and you can beat a bluff with a mediocre hand. The only way to compensate for the bluffs of your opponents is to bluff them back!
You don’t get what you deserve in poker; you get what you negotiate—Bluffing is the quintessential negotiator. If you are going to be a winning player, you have to include bluffing in your game. The more your bluffs matter, the harder they are to pull off because they are, after all, bluffs. It is, however, impossible to defend against a solid bluffing strategy. Reality is perception, and appearance is reality.
Tells
Tells can give you a competitive advantage. HINTS or suggestions are better ways to describe the leaks in your (and your opponents') game. The universal hint in poker is called betting—jamming the pot when you have the best of it, and punishing opponents for their draws. Betting is the language of poker; the more money behind your bet, the louder your voice! This kind of game, the safe sex of poker—without the deceit, the seduction, the bluffing—is like wearing a condom. And you know how that feels.
The sex of poker is bluffing, getting something for nothing. Poker is, after all, anything you can get away with. In the real world, if your wife is cheating on you—you don't want to believe it (truth bias). So she bluffs you and gets away with it, but then ... one day her own fear of being caught (detection apprehension) will be the non-verbal (TELL) communication that speaks to your subconscious and allows you to divorce her! That is, if your left brain gets good at telling your right brain what to do.
Misleading Vividness—Learn the Lines
Bluffing is giving yourself permission to win, even if you do not have the best of it. When you show up to a game, you have to be script-driven, and the lines are simple—"I am going to win," NOT "I should win," NOT "I deserve to win." If you can pull off a feeling of acceptance, not even belief, you will have a reasonable amount of success in your bluffs. Be misleading, not confusing, in your bluffs.
Use position, psychology, and bluffing to tip the scales. One thing for sure—POSITION makes every bluff easier. What is your RRR, your risk-reward ratio? What are the CPs, calling patterns of your opponents? What are their BPs, betting patterns? The bluffing quest is in these questions.
You don't get a second chance to make a first impression on any given hand. Commit to a hand, and the prosperous termination of desired events—scooping up the pot. Bluffing really means you are against something but appear to be for it. Creating a false impression, disguising the "truth," is easier said than done. Overcompensating in either direction usually occurs—that's a bad bluff. Manipulating how confident you appear, a person who is bluffing will almost always overcompensate 100% to convince or convey.