Decision Science

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Showing posts from May, 2009

Poker Doesn’t Think, and the cards have no memory.

Once upon a starting hand: When all you have is the hammer, everything is a nail. The implicit value of 7 deuce-Leading uphill against conventional wisdom. Under the right circumstances you can play ANY Two Cards---ATC, and expect a positive return, either immediately or down the road. From Worst To First-The best hole cards you've never played The book value and herd mentality of 72 offsuit in holdem is squadush. It is the worst hand in NLH.-Yet the Hammer can go from zero to hero. It makes a great raising hand in position. Play them like aces--When everyone misses on the flop, throw in a continuation bet, and you take down the pot. Money certainly has been won from players' mis-reading of the situation, and the 7 deuce first in money guy working magic-or mis-direction-- creating the illusion appearing as real--Now that's playing with no cards. Starting hands can be created or dissolved with the change in its implicit value, which is determined by the personal perce...

The universal tell in poker is called betting! No limit holdem is a game of ins and outs, need and speed, aggravation and acceleration. Counting your outs , the number of cards that will make you a complete hand is something to reconsider, thanks to what I call, the Bluff Outs: additional scare cards that, if they hit, you bet out, and, force your opponent to fold; mentally dealing them the hand .Bluff Outs Poker is about playing 'in the dark': betting that your opponents DON'T have the cards rather than that they do. Preflop, a pocket pair only has 2 outs to improve, overcards have 6 to draw to the nuts.This is not even taking into account straight and flush draws! That means over cards are at least a 3:1 favorite to improve and win the hand. And with bluff outs, even if you miss, you can bet it like you have it. It requires a shift in thinking---Instead of "I hope he doesn't bet" or " Come on--- pair the board" or "Club, Club Cl...

The possibility of sudden significant change in your game. The Secret is about the law of attraction and results—the secret of poker is the complete opposite! The way to get better is to think about process not results —focus on better decision making and ignoring short term results. This is extremely hard to do because neurons that wire together fire together--- that's the sex of poker ---Having fun. In fact, it's not about winning or losing any one hand, but excelling and having an "experience" There's a wonderful phrase in Gladwell's Blink --"the power of thin slicing"--which says that as human beings we are capable of making sense of situations based on the thinnest slice of experience. That's what I mean about the difference between having fun and "having an experience"---pure house games like black jack and slots, verses poker. NLH is not just a "sport", it's a concussion. The difference between l...

Growth Hacks for The Rec Player ♠️♦️♣️♥️

Crypto: The Ultimate Bluff Economy

The "Bro Economy" is driven by day traders, crypto junkies, and sports bettors chasing volatile gains. Fueled by FOMO, they favor thrill over strategy—creating opportunities for those who can exploit the chaos.

The Cult of The Amateur

If you play a hand as if you could see your opponents' cards, they lose; if you don't, they gain.

Poker Rewards (Selective) Aggression

Risk is a Feature, Not a Bug: Mastering Uncertainty – just as innovation thrives on calculated risk. Knowing when to push forward and when to fold is the key to long-term success.

The Leap Strategy

Risk isn't chaos—it's clarity in disguise. Push boundaries, embrace the fallout, and refine your aim after every leap.

Building The Plane While Flying It

Fail Forward: The Art of Rapid Experimentation – Poker, like startups, is about building the plane while flying—making strategic moves, adjusting in real time, and learning from every hand dealt.

When Bad Things Happen To Good Starting Hands

Variance shapes vision. The best players don't just survive bad beats—they evolve through them.

Bad Beats Are Overhead; Chips, The Cost of Doing Business

Risk isn't part of the game; it IS the game. Losses are investments, and every chip in play is the price of staying in the game.

Mental Edge Ops ♣️♥️♠️♦️💡

The Odds of Thinking

Conventional Wisdom is a Bluff waiting To Be Called.

Set the Speed Limit – Fear Speeds Things Up

Your Brain's Bouncer-What Gets through The Velvet Rope?

Losing Holdem ASAP

Tilt isn't just a crack—it's a call to recalibrate. Master your mind, and watch the field unravel.

The IN To My Sane

The loop traps the unaware. Break patterns, bend probabilities, and redefine sanity in high-stakes play.

Outcome Independence Mindset

Thinking in bets means trading urgency for edge. Burn momentum on impulse, you lose. Stack it with patience, you scale.

Stop the Spiral

Feedback loops fuel losses. Cut the noise before the noise cuts your bankroll.

Radical Abundance: A Force Multiplier

Shift from managing limits to engineering limitless possibilities, and play not with scarcity, but with strategy, design, and vision.

Infinite Patience Brings Immediate Results

The more hands you win, the more money you lose: playing too many hands boosts short-term wins but increases risks that harm long-term profits.

Energy Shapes Strategy

Flow attracts focus. Bring intentional energy to your game, and watch your connections solidify.

ABC Poker

The Alphabet Crisis: Analog Poker In A Digital World

The Meta Stack ♣️♥️♦️♠️☁️

Rewire, Reignite

You Can't Teach An Old Dogma New Tricks. Conventional Wisdom is a Bluff waiting To Be Called.

Be the Glitch

Unpredictability isn't randomness—it's controlled chaos. Become a shadow in their playbook. Don't be the system—be the error

Tranquility Base: The Ego Has Landed

Read the tells. Control the ego. Summon your alter ego and play like you're not even from Earth. This is next-level poker.

Decision Science

Turn every guess into a calculated gamble. Probability doesn't just inform decisions—it dominates them.

Adapt to Dominate

Solvers shape the meta, but true mastery lies in adaptation. Stay sharp, stay evergreen.

ABC Poker: Risk Smart, Play Sharp

ABC poker is about controlled aggression—high stakes, but strict discipline.

Poker Courage: Micro Bravery

Courage isn't about grand gestures—it's about the small, decisive actions that build confidence and define champions.

Failure Is Data Not Drama

Turn setbacks into insights. Fail better, learn faster.

Wise And Otherwise: A Game Of Partial Information

There are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck.

Night Vision: Playing in The Dark

Not having an expectation to win is liberating. Every search begins with beginner's luck.

Level-Up Lore ♦️♠️♥️♣️

Moonshots & Margins

Big ideas don't just need bankroll—they need fold equity. Think beyond limits, and scale with intention.

Luck Is Probability Taken Personally

We confuse luck with skill, misjudge outcomes, and fall for biases. Leverage setbacks, adjust strategies and use pressure as fuel for creative breakthroughs.

The Truth About Lying

Less "I" More Lie: Junk Words and The Secret Lives of Pronouns.

Range Craft

There are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck.

The Loophole: Manufacturing Focus

Players follow mental "apps"—predictable patterns. Disrupting those gives you the real edge.

Gut vs Grid

Solvers crack numbers, but instincts crack aces. Trust what machines can't compute.

Cognitive Gravity Is Your Cryptonite

Put the SUPER in Superman. Take the Poker Crash Course For your Black Box 3 lb-Universe-Brain

GTO For The Feel Player

Beyond Opponents: It's Not About Them. It's About The Game Itself.