Poker and Investing: Games of Incomplete Information
The Universal Tell: Betting
Betting is the universal tell in poker. No limit hold’em is a game of ins and outs, need and speed, aggravation and acceleration.
Bluff Outs and Strategy
Counting your outs—the number of cards that can make your hand—is just the beginning. Consider Bluff Outs: additional scare cards that can force opponents to fold even if you miss.
Preflop, overcards have 6 outs compared to a pocket pair’s 2 outs to improve. Combined with bluff outs, you can bet as though you have the nuts even when you miss.
Mindset Shift
Instead of hoping for a card, focus on strategy:
- Aggression: Bet out when the board favors you.
- Continuation Bets: Commit to maintaining pressure.
- Confidence: Bet like you have it—even when you don’t.
Betting vs Gambling
Poker isn’t a card game played with money—it’s a money game played with cards. It’s about betting patterns, not just cards.
Bluffing and Negotiation
Bluffing is the art of negotiation. It’s about getting something for nothing and forcing opponents into errors. Bluffing strategies focus on risk-reward ratios and opponent patterns.
Psychology of Bluffing
Bluffing leverages perception and misdirection:
“You don’t get what you deserve in poker, you get what you negotiate.”