Ed Mental Models

Learning Journey

Ed Reif's Mental Models: From Bets to Presence

A guided, interactive path through the mental models that power your writing, teaching, travel, and poker—designed like a Rise-style course with flip cards, reflections, and a live completion bar.

Modules: 5 Buckets + Summary
Format: Flashcards • Reflections • Checklist
Focus: Decisions, Presence, Agency, Story
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Thinking in bets. Optimize for Expected Value, update beliefs as new cards fall, and don't protect sunk costs.

Bayesian Updating — every card or datapoint updates your priors.
Expected Value — stack positive-EV decisions; outcomes are noisy.
Loss Aversion — notice it, don't let it steer you.
Sunk Cost — fold bad pots in work and life.
How this maps to Ed

You've left cruise ships, Afghanistan, and jobs when the EV turned negative. Your books reframe variance as learning, not identity.

Presence over plans. The territory teaches what the map can't. Practice inversion and opportunity cost to protect aliveness.

First Principles — freedom, movement, usefulness.
Map vs Territory — reality beats itinerary.
Opportunity Cost — every yes is a no.
Inversion — avoid what guarantees misery.

Instructional design is systems + clarity. Focus on the vital 20%, teach like Feynman, and close loops fast.

Feynman Technique — explain simply to understand deeply.
Pareto (80/20) — cut to the vital few.
Feedback Loops — iterate toward mastery.
Systems Thinking — see interlocks, not silos.

Agency is practice. Own the locus of control, get stronger under stress, compound what matters, and stay in your lane.

Locus of Control — internal > external.
Anti-fragility — stressors can strengthen.
Circle of Competence — double down on your edge.
Compound Interest — habits, relationships, reputation.

Make meaning, not noise. Use framing and simplicity, honor randomness, and think in second-order effects.

Framing — angle determines meaning.
Narrative Fallacy — story ≠ truth (but story moves people).
Occam's Razor — prefer simple explanations.
Second-Order Thinking — consequences of consequences.

Your Core 7 — Quick-Use Checklist

These are the models that feel like your DNA. Tick them as you apply them this week.

Reflection prompts (5 minutes)
  • Where did I let loss aversion block a +EV move this month?
  • What assumption can I re-write from first principles this week?
  • Which relationship or habit deserves compounding attention today?
  • What second-order effect am I currently ignoring?
"Win with systems; narrate with honesty; travel as practice. The frontier is your next well-chosen decision."

Growth Hacks for The Rec Player ♠️♦️♣️♥️

Crypto: The Ultimate Bluff Economy

The "Bro Economy" is driven by day traders, crypto junkies, and sports bettors chasing volatile gains. Fueled by FOMO, they favor thrill over strategy—creating opportunities for those who can exploit the chaos.

The Cult of The Amateur

If you play a hand as if you could see your opponents' cards, they lose; if you don't, they gain.

Poker Rewards (Selective) Aggression

Risk is a Feature, Not a Bug: Mastering Uncertainty – just as innovation thrives on calculated risk. Knowing when to push forward and when to fold is the key to long-term success.

The Leap Strategy

Risk isn't chaos—it's clarity in disguise. Push boundaries, embrace the fallout, and refine your aim after every leap.

Building The Plane While Flying It

Fail Forward: The Art of Rapid Experimentation – Poker, like startups, is about building the plane while flying—making strategic moves, adjusting in real time, and learning from every hand dealt.

When Bad Things Happen To Good Starting Hands

Variance shapes vision. The best players don't just survive bad beats—they evolve through them.

Bad Beats Are Overhead; Chips, The Cost of Doing Business

Risk isn't part of the game; it IS the game. Losses are investments, and every chip in play is the price of staying in the game.

Mental Edge Ops ♣️♥️♠️♦️💡

The Odds of Thinking

Conventional Wisdom is a Bluff waiting To Be Called.

Set the Speed Limit – Fear Speeds Things Up

Your Brain's Bouncer-What Gets through The Velvet Rope?

Losing Holdem ASAP

Tilt isn't just a crack—it's a call to recalibrate. Master your mind, and watch the field unravel.

The IN To My Sane

The loop traps the unaware. Break patterns, bend probabilities, and redefine sanity in high-stakes play.

Outcome Independence Mindset

Thinking in bets means trading urgency for edge. Burn momentum on impulse, you lose. Stack it with patience, you scale.

Stop the Spiral

Feedback loops fuel losses. Cut the noise before the noise cuts your bankroll.

Radical Abundance: A Force Multiplier

Shift from managing limits to engineering limitless possibilities, and play not with scarcity, but with strategy, design, and vision.

Stacked Intelligence: My Fireside Chat with DeepMind

Luck is Just Strategy in Disguise

Infinite Patience Brings Immediate Results

The more hands you win, the more money you lose: playing too many hands boosts short-term wins but increases risks that harm long-term profits.

Energy Shapes Strategy

Flow attracts focus. Bring intentional energy to your game, and watch your connections solidify.

ABC Poker

The Alphabet Crisis: Analog Poker In A Digital World

The Meta Stack ♣️♥️♦️♠️☁️

Rewire, Reignite

You Can't Teach An Old Dogma New Tricks. Conventional Wisdom is a Bluff waiting To Be Called.

Be the Glitch

Unpredictability isn't randomness—it's controlled chaos. Become a shadow in their playbook. Don't be the system—be the error

Tranquility Base: The Ego Has Landed

Read the tells. Control the ego. Summon your alter ego and play like you're not even from Earth. This is next-level poker.

Decision Science

Turn every guess into a calculated gamble. Probability doesn't just inform decisions—it dominates them.

Adapt to Dominate

Solvers shape the meta, but true mastery lies in adaptation. Stay sharp, stay evergreen.

ABC Poker: Risk Smart, Play Sharp

ABC poker is about controlled aggression—high stakes, but strict discipline.

Poker Courage: Micro Bravery

Courage isn't about grand gestures—it's about the small, decisive actions that build confidence and define champions.

Failure Is Data Not Drama

Turn setbacks into insights. Fail better, learn faster.

Wise And Otherwise: A Game Of Partial Information

There are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck.

Night Vision: Playing in The Dark

Not having an expectation to win is liberating. Every search begins with beginner's luck.

Level-Up Lore ♦️♠️♥️♣️

Moonshots & Margins

Big ideas don't just need bankroll—they need fold equity. Think beyond limits, and scale with intention.

Luck Is Probability Taken Personally

We confuse luck with skill, misjudge outcomes, and fall for biases. Leverage setbacks, adjust strategies and use pressure as fuel for creative breakthroughs.

The Truth About Lying

Less "I" More Lie: Junk Words and The Secret Lives of Pronouns.

Range Craft

There are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck.

The Loophole: Manufacturing Focus

Players follow mental "apps"—predictable patterns. Disrupting those gives you the real edge.

Gut vs Grid

Solvers crack numbers, but instincts crack aces. Trust what machines can't compute.

Cognitive Gravity Is Your Cryptonite

Put the SUPER in Superman. Take the Poker Crash Course For your Black Box 3 lb-Universe-Brain

GTO For The Feel Player

Beyond Opponents: It's Not About Them. It's About The Game Itself.