Decision Science

The Kowloon & Macau Helium Report Winning at the Wynn in Macau Vintage chaos, Money Heaven, deep-stack poker, card lust, and the long argument between good decisions and lucky outcomes. Hong Kong → Macau → Bangkok February 2009 Hotel @nyware Field Notes Getting My Baht Outta Macau and Back To Bangkok This began as two reports: one from Kowloon, where the extraordinary had become ordinary, and another from Macau, where the poker rooms were learning No-Limit Hold’em in real time. Combined, they became one story about money, motion, dopamine, decision-making, and the danger of confusing a winning result with a winning decision. Part One / The Kowloon Report Vintage Chaos in the Concrete Forest Hong Kong: where density becomes weather. Greetings from the user-friendly universe of Bangkok to one...

The Hero's Journey · Foreign Land · February 27, 2009 Vintage Chaos The Kowloon Report From Bangkok's user-friendly universe to Mong Kok's concrete forest: caffeine, density, Chinglish, monopoly money, location-neutral living, and the strange moment when the extraordinary becomes ordinary. Enter Kowloon Previous Field Ledger · Macau Mong Kok Concrete forest Hotel @nyware Chinglish From nation to notion Ordinary World The Call Answer the Call Foreign Land Trials The Elixir Where was all that feng shui in sardine land's concrete forest? Greetings from the user-friendly universe of Bangkok to one of the most de...

Moneymaker Effect in Poker Poker Pros Chris Farrell and Ed Reif Moneymaker Effect? What effect did it have on you? Calling poker a sport is like calling bald a hair color. Yet this male pattern madness--- an 800 lb gorilla known as Texas No Limit Hold em (a.k.a. NLH)--- has replaced baseball not only as the national pastime, but also America’s bellybutton. The real deal is that gambling is an addiction, and the Addictionary- is spelt with the letters WSOP, WPT, GSN and ESPN. The mess is the message---winjuries--- a cool revenue stream for the networks and promoters, OME, out of money experiences for everyone else connected to the "sport". Why? because NLH, no limit holdem is 100% skill and 100% luck, and luck lends but never gives. ESPN’s WSOP (World Series of Poker), High Stakes Poker on GSN, and the Travel Channel’s WPT (World Poker Tour) have done for poker what Jamba smoothies did for ...

Poker Strategy The Possibility of Sudden Significant Change in Your Game The way to get better is to think about process, not results —focus on better decision-making and ignore short-term results. This is extremely hard to do because neurons that wire together fire together—that’s the real thrill of poker. The Power of Thin Slicing There's a wonderful phrase in Malcolm Gladwell's Blink —"the power of thin slicing"—which suggests that humans can make sense of situations based on the smallest slices of experience. Poker isn't just a game; it’s a strategic mental challenge. Hello, My Name is "I'm All In"—when bad things happen to good decisions. Poker is about risk and reward, where bad plays can sometimes be rewarded, but long-term skill prevails. Commitment & Equity NLH revolves around the thre...

Poker and Investing: Games of Incomplete Information Poker and Investing: Games of Incomplete Information Poker: A Game of Skill and Chance On any given hand, poker may be 85% luck and 15% skill, but over thousands of hands, the percentages flip—85% skill and 15% luck. Understanding patterns and probabilities is crucial. "Mo' money is lost by players who know the right thing to do, but fail to do it anyway." - Behavioral Finance Insights Behavioral Finance Meets Poker Behavioral finance can inform poker strategy. Superlative performance isn’t just eliminating chance but recognizing opportunity. It’s when your left brain trains your right brain to act correctly under pressure. Risk Assessment: Know the odds before betting. Folding Discipline: Winning isn’t about pots—it’s about chips. Bias Awareness: Recognize patterns of irrational behavior. Winning by Minimiz...

Poker is considered the purest of games; and No Limit Holdem (NLH) is surely the purest of the "sacred" illnesses, also known as, addictions, because it is behavioral rather than chemical. see Grey Matters- In search of The All-In Molecule Gambling isn’t as scandalous as writing about it. You can’t be a poker blogger and not think about addiction. It’s like not thinking a bout death becaus e it lasts too long. More than that, there is very little difference biologically be tween what is going inside the head of a drug addict and a poker "pro". There is no shame, however, in being a Poker Pro, only in still being one, once you realize your brain made you re-buy. Furthermore, as the selfish brain fears death and looks for predictable experiences, poker is a great placebo that hijacks the brain with a predictable surprise: card players are surprised if they win and surprised if t hey lose. see: Poker= f(dopamine flow); Money= happiness in the United States of Unc...