The Moneymaker Effect

Poker is not a form of gambling---but gambling is a form of ---loose-aggressive--- poker that payed off last night night at The Rio WSOP Final Table.

SPOILER ALERT: We have a winner---The face of poker now belongs to young Peter Eastgate.

The stakes were high -and when the stakes are high, it's not about winning, it's about excelling, making good decisions.

All gambling involves betting, but not all bets are gambling. It depends on how much control you have over the outcome and how much luck you think you have at the moment. Both players were aggressive and poker rewards aggression, but NLH is also a game of domination and Eastgate owned Demidov throughout the match.

After 104 hands of heads-up action dominated almost entirely by the 22-year-old Dane, Eastgate turned the wheel straight. The Russian Demidov had two pair--so his money was going all in.

Peter won the bracelet and a first prize totaling $9,152,416 becoming the youngest-ever WSOP Main Event-winner in the process, ending Phil Hellmuth's reign as the previously youngest (Age24) to win the Main Event.

Bluff Magazine did a great job, providing the live audio feed for the WSOP Final Table between Eastgate and Demindov. (Nick Geber and current BLUFF Magazine cover girl LaceyJones) The collective hunch among the pros and Joes was that it was anybody's game. The Anglo/Dane screen named Isser, however, proved that poker is a game of money played with cards- His universal tell to Demidov was betting!

Eastgate was betting on positive expectations and predictable outcomes.—either he held unbeatable cards or made Deminov believe he did , that’s a skill set that pays out 10x over time. Eastgate's bets were declaration that said to Demidov, " I have a better hand than you---Find out if it the truth or a lie. Call me or fold". Demidov act accordingly to continually reward the Dane.... Unless he had the stone cold nuts, when he bet, he wanted Demidov to think he did , and fold.

It will be interesting to the see the Broadcast coverage tonight on ESPN , when the hole cards are revealed with the lipstick camera to see if Peter was telling lies and getting paid, or just getting hit with the deck.

Demidov played his way to the Final table with no cards: Poker without cards is called bluffing. If you never get called, you can never lose. Eastgate called! Yet if the right people don't show up, the right game doesn't either. Eastgate took the edge off the edge of Ivan's Bluffs, having the gift of connecting to the field of awareness that exists behind the con in the confidence of the bluffs.

Bluffing was a big part of both their games since most players miss the flop 33% of the time, heads up is really a game of chicken. Without the right game, however, the right people don't show up. Joe The Plumber (Dennis Phillips) busted out, and mono e mono, an I for an I left both players with blind aggression. Eastgate, however was betting with the best hands; Demidov, buffing with the worst. Stack Size played into it, and early on Ivan was crippled. It was the closest Ivan would l ever get to feeling like he was playing Russian roulette, with Eastgate channeling his Christopher Walken inner Deer Hunter.

Ivan wasn't t a bad player when he fired his blanks, and his bluffs got called. He only had to win a fraction of the time to net a profit. Sklansky's (game)Theory of poker points out that you cannot play optimally unless you include bluffing into your game. Yet, The more Ivan's bluffs mattered, the harder they were to pull off because they were, after all, bluffs.




Moneymaker Effect? What effect did it have on you?

You have to be a somebody in poker before you can be a nobody-Chris Moneymaker was a nobody, a 27 year old accountant who had the zen mind beginner's mind of a champion, won $2.5 million in the Big Game with a $20 Buck satellite "lotto ticket". Nowadays, Chris is a Somebody--- a Pokerstars Spokesmodel who hasn't won a major tournament since his WSOP 2003 anomaly. Check please.


Either raise or fold, but rarely call.

Always aspire to be a nobody in poker. A nobody bets only when the odds are favorable. Gamblers are somebody--They splash the pot, make loose calls , bluff off their stack and bet money at unfavorable odds and eventually lose it all. A nobody cannot lose; he eventually wins all the money that "somebody" players risk. Most Somebodies idea of a good lay down is to flat call. Bluff raising for him is out of the question

NLH is a safety net for somebody gamblers. Not knowing what he is doing because he doesn’t know what he is doing—shields him from his own efforts to lose! These kind of players back into a lot of hands and split pots., and generaly confuse nobody players.

Zero Sum and Then Some

Serious poker is a POSITIVE -SUM GAME. Everybody gets what they want or need. The game itself helps the pie expand. And in (game) theory everybody simultaneously wins in a positve sum game. Yet if Poker is all about reading game theory books and learning ABC theroies and systems, then the games are really like used bookstores---dead information. The game sure doesn't look like a used bookstore, thanks to dealing with everywhere--- ubiquitious internet poker. Nobody players routinely make more cash than people who work in used bookstores!

The Hockey Strike is a negative sum event- NEGATIVE-SUM GAMES are games in which both sides lose. This represents the height of irrationality to positive-sum players, but it proves a surprisingly durable choice of game-players. Pull the grenade and blow us both up. Smashmouth Poker is a less deadly version of combat, and therefore a good way to practice for it if you are out to have a good time and fully expect to lose all your money that you brought to the table that night.

While the Zambonis' sat idle, the strike created new programming slots for ESPN's niche "sports" like Poker-and fueled the Moneymaker Effect: and you know how that affected all our games---more AQ verses small pockets(races), more bad beats and suckouts by DONKS winning, not by what they knew, but what was absent from their game---like fear, experience and regret.

Broke Back Poker-A Guaranteed income for life.

Without the right game, the right people don't show up.

Raising with good hands, pairs. Calling with draws and throwing away junk. Yea, I wanna play with these guys because Karaoke Poker can solve any problem for which a solution is known to exist . Many still sing the patience, tight-is-right ABC by the book style of play--that's an even money scenerio-- You don’t play to break even, you play to break backs.

When weak players stay in the game, they use luck and because of the nature of NLH, can win buckets of money in the short run. Just remember they are only borrowing the chips from you.
Feeling lucky and going into a casino is like feeling athletic and going to a sports bar---You can depend on the rabbit's foot for luck, but it didn't help the rabbit.

When playing people who feel lucky---Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move when you are certain you have the stone cold nuts or at least, great odds. If you get drawn out on the river by this kind of player, be assured he will go broke chasing to the river the next few hands he plays. All players are equally good, it's their play that is bad: A little past playing good is playing badly. You beat bad players and bluff good ones. Bads call too often and rarely fold. The longer you have been playing, the "smarter" you get. Experience rich and technique poor players-smart players---are easier to bluff, because of this fact. They are usually paying attention to the action.

Suited cards like Q2,K4 are cows---units of chaos. Pump 'em or Dump em.

Just put yourself to the simple test--would I play them if they weren't suited; if no dump it. If yes, pump it. The best way to control chaos is at the beginning of an event. Folding is an invisible form of winning. Reducing your risk, not taking chances on it. Any pre-flop hand can be folded—a big pair can go from pretty to pretty ugly unless you isolate, and have a heads up situation. A hand can be favored individually. And a loser collectively (Family pots). There are no chips for second place.

As the game becomes looser, the value of suited connectors and suited starting hands becomes higher, and the monster starting hands like QQ and AK goes down. There is no strict rule for acceptable staring hands. The more people that see the flop, the less likely big hand will hold up.Usually they end in a showdown, and a complete hand-straight or flush---but if the board pairs, you are drawing to the nuts, a full house.

You have to be a somebody in poker before you can be a nobody. A somebody has mystical feelings, overconfidence, invincibility and in general letting luck short cirucit their mind from the heavy lifting of thinking. A nobody just wants to make good decisions.

Learn to play poker in ten years—What’s the rush?

It takes years to become an overnight success at poker, and a lifetime to make it all look simple. In the Life, Liberty and The Pursuit of a fast buck, you have to assume players know what they want to do with their money--it's their privilege to bet or gamble with their money.

Never complain never explain. DON'T TAP THE AQUARIUM--It will disturb the fish--the guys who got their poker Ph.D. from ESPN.
Peter Eastgate Ivan Demidov WSOP 2008 World Series of Poker ESPN WSOP
Chris Moneymaker WSOP Pokerstars Betting verses gambling gambling Poker