Making the Right Mistake
The surest way to win a huge pot in NLH is to spot them the nuts and then suck out! When this happens, hate the win, not the winner. I call this "making the right mistake."
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Last Night's Game
Last night, I was deep in a heads-up game. I had position, and a guy raises. I call with suited connectors, putting him on AK. I hit two pair, 5s and 6s, with a King on the board. The guy shoves all in on the flop! I insta-call, and I am dominated as he shows two pair too—K6 suited! The river is a 5, and I suck out with a full house. When that happens, it gets me nervously thinking: "It's better to be skillful than lucky." Note to self...
Staying Too Long
These are the nights that I stay too long and go home broke. I did. Why? Because luck lends but never gives.
Playing 'in the dark': betting that your opponents don't have the cards rather than that they do is a strategy, not the strategy. I couldn't switch gears. I did a lot of bluffing, and I got called down with bottom pair, even with scare cards on the board.
Game Dynamics
An aggressive game is a game of strategy and deception. A passive game is where money flows from bad to good players. A loose game is a game of money and odds; a tight one is a battle for the antes.
It was Ready, Fire, Aim—unloading three bullets—flop, turn, and river, into a pot, holding squadush—"nothing," “zilch,” or “zero"—and, when I first arrived, in the passive game, taking it down.
As the evening progressed and the game loosened up, the passive players busted out, and the tight aggressive players came in. It became a game of money and odds. I didn't adjust well and re-bought three times.
Tilt and Lessons Learned
Tilt was everywhere in my game—I got AA busted twice, and KK and QQ. That's right. The AA was with a flop of 743 garbage. He bets big, I re-raise all in, he calls, with a set of 7s.
Granted, too much respect for money makes you a bad NLH player, so I must be a great player, because I didn't think he could have anything.
I walked away from that session with knowledge: First, my brain is the "most powerful computer." Second, when on tilt, my brain is the most powerful "broken computer."
Tilt makes us sub-optimal for evaluating rewards, sizing up risks, and calculating probabilities. It's like selling the car for gas money.
Game-Changing Insights
- "Making the Right Mistake": Describes situations where a player wins a large pot despite making a suboptimal decision, such as calling with a dominated hand and getting lucky. While profitable in the short term, this can lead to overconfidence and poor decision-making in the long run.
- The Importance of Staying Disciplined: The author recounts a personal experience of losing money due to staying in a game too long and playing on tilt. He emphasizes recognizing tilt and its negative effects on decision-making.
- Different Game Dynamics: Outlines four distinct game dynamics: Aggressive, Passive, Loose, and Tight. Each dynamic requires a different approach and strategy.
- Tilt and its Consequences: Defines tilt as a state of emotional imbalance that negatively impacts decision-making in poker, leading to suboptimal choices in evaluating rewards, assessing risks, and calculating probabilities.
- The Brain as a Tool: Metaphorically describes the brain as the "most powerful computer" when playing poker, but also as the most powerful "broken computer" when on tilt.
Karaoke Poker
ABC Emotional Players
Behaviorial Economics 101
- Loss Aversion: "Players hate losing chips more than they love winning pots. That’s why the casino serves free drinks—to keep you calling those river bets."
- Anchoring: "The first bet size you hear isn’t just a suggestion; it’s a psychological anchor. That’s why a min-raise feels like a bargain, and an over-bet feels like highway robbery."
- Sunk Costs: "‘I’ve already put 80% of my stack into this pot, so I can’t fold now.’ Congratulations, you just paid for your opponent’s monster hand with extra flair."
- Overconfidence: "Everyone thinks they can outplay the table. Statistically, half of them are just giving lessons in bad bluffing."
- Herd Mentality: "If three players call the all-in, you probably will too—especially if the guy next to you says, ‘It’s only chips.’"
- Prospect Theory: "Winning a small pot feels good, but losing a big pot feels like poker gods personally cursed your soul."
- Mental Accounting: "I can’t risk my last $50 in my bankroll, but this $200 I just won in the last hand? That’s for fireworks!"
- Status Quo Bias: "Trying a 4-bet bluff is scary. That’s why some people still play pocket Kings like they’re invincible."
- Confirmation Bias: "If you think your opponent always bluffs, you’ll find the evidence—even if they only bluff once every 50 hands."
- Risk Aversion: "‘Better safe than sorry’ is why you’re still folding top pair to the nit who hasn’t raised a hand since 2012."
- Time Discounting: "Future You would prefer you fold trash hands and grind for hours. Present You is busy calling all-ins with 7-2 suited because it’s fun."
- Endowment Effect: "Your pocket Aces are ‘premium.’ Everyone else’s pocket Aces are ‘rigged.’"
- Regret Aversion: "You’ll tank for five minutes before folding your set of 9s to a big shove, just to avoid regretting it if the river completes the flush."
- Hot-Hand Fallacy: "You’ve won three coin flips in a row—time to bluff your whole stack on the river with air!"
- Cold-Hand Fallacy: "After three losing sessions in a row, you start to think poker is just legalized robbery."
- Explore the concept of tilt in poker and its impact on decision-making.
- Investigate different game dynamics and the optimal strategies for each.
- Study the mental aspects of poker and techniques for improving emotional control and discipline.