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Decision Science

You are one year away with focus from people just calling you lucky

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THERE'S no Limit Like No Limit

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Not today Satan

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Explore the Ed Reif Universe

Books, journeys, decision science, life at sea and stories from the edge.

Ed Reif Books, essays, training doctrine and the central archive. Rock & Roam Build a home that does not cancel the journey. Gibraltar, travel, remote work and the asymmetrical life. Decision Science Think better under uncertainty. Poker, probability, uncertainty and judgment under pressure. Share Fair Isle The island became a compass. Island life, wild weather and stories north of everywhere. Deja Blue The world became home. Life at sea, world cruises and the journeys between ports. Skyelark Pay attention. I'll show you how. Four paws, global adventures and the curious canine mind.

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Table of Contents

PROLOGUE - THINK IN BETS Separate the Decision From the Outcome
Calculated Bet
PART I - PROCESS BEFORE RESULTS The Outcome Is Not the Decision
Process Is True North
Vision Without Execution Is Hallucination
Authoring Your Future
PART II - PROBABILITY & VARIANCE Luck Gets Personal
Luck Is Probability Taken Personally
Infinite Patience Brings Immediate Results
Moonshot: Acting Before Certainty Arrives
PART III - ASYMMETRIC RISK Cap the Downside. Keep the Upside.
Leverage the Lopsided: Asymmetric Risk
Cap Your Downside for Uncapped Upside
The Best Leveraged Transaction of My Life
PART IV - PARTIAL INFORMATION You Never See Every Card
Fast and Slow Thinking
Mental Models
Wise and Otherwise: A Game of Partial Information
PART V - STATE, SPEED & FOCUS Control the Player Before Playing the Hand
Set the Speed Limit
The Loophole: Manufactured Focus
Your Brain on Poker
Losing Holdem ASAP
Rewiring Tilt Into Tactical Flow
PART VI - GUT + GRID Feel Meets Game Theory
GTO for the Feel Player
Code, Play, Optimize
Poker Outloud: Make the Thinking Visible
PART VII - FEEDBACK Data, Not Drama
Failure Is Data, Not Drama
PART VIII - FIELD TESTS Where the Chips Are Real
World Poker Tour: Seminole Hard Rock
Macau: The Helium Report
Urban Monk on the Hong Kong Express
Khao San Poker
What Happens in Vegas Happened in Macau
EPILOGUE - THE DECISION ENGINE Probability. Process. Judgment.
The Golden Thread of Probability